A year for non-predictions

After the year that has just ended, who would make predictions for 2021? Until last year there was a formula for expecting the year: new technology, new political events, travel destinations, economic progress. All of them were radically affected by one thing above all, Covid 19, which had hardly been notified to the world this time last year.

Some years ago, a writer called Nicholas Taleb published a book with the title ‚Black Swan‘. This concerned the tendency of people to become habituated to a certain thing (white swans), and to be shocked when something else was possible (black swans). It was also about the uncertainty of life and the need for a robust approach so that black swan events don’t destroy…